I started reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb yesterday. It is awesome so far. It should be required reading for anyone who ever reads any other business books. (It's also highly relevant to my new venture and very entertaining.)
Favorite quotes so far (my thoughts in parentheses):
- It is a mistake to use, as journalists and some economists (and many businesspeople) do, statistics without logic, but the reverse does not hold: It is not a mistake to use logic without statistics.
- The quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome, but such a point seems to be voiced only by people who fail. (the point being a result can be lucky or unlucky, and luck doesn't make a bad decision that leads to a good outcome any better)
- MBAs tend to blow up in financial markets, as they are trained to simplify matters to a couple of steps beyond their requirement. (Complexity and subtlety can be important in business - being able to handle them successfully, rather than managing by vapid sound bites, is equally important. Both Taleb and I have MBAs and feel the same way about them.)
Great book!
1 comments:
The first point is awesome!
The thing that bugs me is that so often, statistics are used without logic.
...ahh the wonderful dreams of a world with statistics backed with logic! :)
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